09 — Financial Projections (Conservative)

Warning

Conservative-first. Every number below leans on the safer side. The goal is to survive the first 12 months — not to hit a target investor deck.

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1. The Three Scenarios at a Glance

Scenario	Y1 cups served	Y1 bags sold	Y1 revenue (RM)	Cash position EoY (RM)	Verdict
Bear	~3,200	~120	~46,000	≈ –4,000 (red)	Sub-survival; pivot or pause needed
Base	~5,400	~200	~95,000	≈ +1,500 (just-positive)	Survives Y1; rebuild Y2
Bull	~9,800	~400	~190,000	≈ +18,000	Capital re-investable

→ Source assumptions in §5 (Bear), §6 (Base), §7 (Bull).

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2. Launch Capex Breakdown (RM 15,000 envelope)

Detailed line-by-line. Trim options in §11.

Category	Item	RM (target)	RM (stretch)
Cart	Frame + timber finish + signage	2,200	3,000
Espresso machine	Used La Marzocco Linea Mini (~RM 6K) OR Sage Dual Boiler new (PHASE 2)	4,500	6,500
Espresso grinder	Eureka Mignon Specialita (used) OR new (HAND GRINDER FIRST)	1,500	2,200
Filter grinder	Comandante C40 (manual, year-1)	850	1,000
Brewing tools	V60 ×3, Hario kettle, scales ×2, thermometer, tamper, knock box	950	1,300
Cold brew kit	2 × 5 L kegs, jugs, sieves	350	450
Cooler / storage	30 L cooler, ice packs, bags, jars	250	350
Initial green coffee	12 kg across 3 lots	1,500	2,000
Co-roasting (2 mo)	8 sessions × RM 150	1,200	1,500
Brand identity	Logo, palette, type, basic system	1,800	2,500
Photography day	Half-day shoot	600	1,000
Packaging launch run	1,000 cups + sleeves + 100 bags	850	1,200
Licensing + insurance	DBKL, KKM cert, public liability	700	1,000
Marketing launch	Influencer cup-for-cup × 3, soft-launch venue rental	500	800
Working cash buffer	1 month operating runway (cash on hand)	1,500	2,500
TOTAL (target)		19,250
TOTAL (stretch)			27,300

Warning

Honest math: the target column already exceeds the RM 15,000 budget by ~RM 4,250. See §11 for the trim plan to fit RM 15K. Without trim, founders need to bring RM 17–20K to the table.

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3. Unit Economics (per cup, per bag, per workshop)

Per drip cup (co-ferment signature, RM 16 sale)

Cost component	RM per cup
Green coffee (15 g × ~RM 130/kg landed)	1.95
Roasting cost (amortised)	0.50
Cup + sleeve + lid	0.55
Water cup + condiments	0.10
Card / QR / FPX fee (~1.5 %)	0.24
Variable cost per cup	~3.34
Vendor fee allocation (RM 250 / 30 cups)	8.33
Total cost per cup at venue	~11.67
Sale price	16.00
Contribution per cup	~4.33
Contribution margin %	~27 %

Info

Excluding vendor fee, contribution is ~RM 12.66 (79 %). The cart math is brutal at low cup counts. At 50 cups/day, vendor allocation drops to RM 5/cup → contribution rises to ~RM 7.66 (48 %). Every additional cup is highly accretive.

Per drip cup (gateway House Drip, RM 12 sale)

Cost component	RM per cup
Green coffee (15 g × ~RM 50/kg landed)	0.75
Roasting cost (amortised)	0.50
Cup + sleeve + lid	0.55
Water cup	0.10
Payment fee	0.18
Variable cost per cup	~2.08
Vendor allocation (30 cups)	8.33
Total cost at venue	~10.41
Sale price	12.00
Contribution per cup	~1.59

Per espresso (RM 12 single, RM 14 latte)

• Espresso single (18 g dose × RM 130/kg) → green ~RM 2.34; cup + sleeve RM 0.45; payment 0.18 → variable ~RM 2.97
• At 12 RM → contribution ex-vendor RM 9.03
• Latte adds RM 0.40 milk → variable ~RM 3.37; sale RM 14 → contribution ex-vendor RM 10.63

Per 200 g bag (RM 65 signature, online)

Cost component	RM
Green coffee (200g ÷ 0.87 = 230g × RM 130/kg)	29.90
Roast cost (amortised)	4.00
Bag + valve + label	2.50
Insert / brew card	0.40
Outer packaging + void fill	1.20
Shipping (avg domestic, customer pays)	0 (passed through)
Payment fee	0.98
Variable cost per bag	~38.98
Sale price	65.00
Contribution per bag	~26.02
Contribution margin %	~40 %

Warning

Bags-from-online have a lower margin than the cart cup ex-vendor. The cart is the brand AND the better unit economics on the days you can hit cup count. Bags are convenience + recall, not the profit centre.

Per workshop (RM 90/pax × 10 pax = RM 900)

Cost component	RM
Beans (4 × 100g sampler in bag + cupping coffees)	100
Materials (handouts, cards)	60
Venue sublet	300
Water + light snacks (free)	80
Take-home cup voucher (3 × 16)	48 (deferred cost)
Variable cost	~588
Founder time (3 hr × 2 founders × RM 25/hr opportunity)	150
Total cost (incl. founder time)	~738
Workshop revenue	900
Contribution per workshop	~162
Contribution margin %	~18 % (incl. founder time) / 35 % (cash only)

Workshops are net-positive cash but marginal when valuing founder time. Their real value is brand-building + customer relationship deepening, not gross profit.

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4. Monthly Variable Cost Drivers

Driver	Bear	Base	Bull
Pop-up days/month	8	12	16
Average cups/pop-up day	25	38	55
Avg ticket (RM)	13	15	17
Bags/month (cart + online)	6	16	35
Avg bag price (RM)	50	60	65
Workshop revenue/month (RM, after Q4)	0	250	800
Catering revenue/month (RM)	0	100	400

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5. Bear Scenario — Conservative Floor

Revenue (Y1)

Stream	Monthly avg (RM)	Annual (RM)
Cart cups	8 days × 25 cups × RM 13 = 2,600	31,200
Bags	6 × 50 = 300	3,600
Workshops	0–1/qtr × 600 (net)	1,200
Catering	0	0
Total	~3,400	~46,000

Cost (Y1)

Cost	RM/year
Green coffee + roasting	~16,000
Vendor fees (8 days × 12 mo × RM 300 avg)	28,800
Packaging	4,800
Equipment depreciation	2,500
Insurance + licensing	1,200
Marketing + content (post-launch)	1,500
Cloud / web / phone	1,200
Founder allowance	0
Total operating cost	~56,000

Result

• Operating loss: ~RM (10,000)
• Plus capex: ~RM 15,000 → net cash position EoY ≈ –RM 4,000 (drained capital + small operating loss)
• Action if bear materialises: Pause new investments by month 6. Cut to 4 pop-up days/month. Evaluate online-first pivot.

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6. Base Scenario — Realistic Target

Revenue (Y1)

Stream	Monthly avg (RM)	Annual (RM)
Cart cups	12 days × 38 cups × RM 15 = 6,840	82,080
Bags	16 × 60 = 960	11,520
Workshops	3 over Y1 × 900 = 2,700	2,700
Catering	1 every 2 mo × 1,200 = 600/mo avg	1,200 (actually ~6 events × 1,200 = 7,200, take conservative midpoint)
Total	~7,900	~95,000

Cost (Y1)

Cost	RM/year
Green + roasting	~31,000
Vendor fees (12 × 12 × RM 300)	43,200
Packaging	8,500
Equipment depreciation	2,500
Insurance + licensing	1,200
Marketing	2,500
Cloud / web / phone	1,400
Founder allowance (small from M9)	2,000
Total operating cost	~92,300

Result

• Operating profit: ~RM 2,700
• Plus capex deployed: ~RM 15,000
• Net cash position EoY ≈ +RM 1,500 (just survives; building rhythm)
• Action if base materialises: Build a 3-month buffer in Y2 Q1; consider sample roaster Q3 2027.

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7. Bull Scenario — Optimistic Cap

Revenue (Y1)

Stream	Monthly avg (RM)	Annual (RM)
Cart cups	16 days × 55 cups × RM 17 = 14,960	179,520
Bags	35 × 65 = 2,275	27,300
Workshops	6 × 1,000 (net) = 6,000	6,000
Catering	8 events × 1,500	12,000
Total	~18,000	~225,000

Trimmed for conservatism to ~RM 190K Y1 to account for ramp.

Cost (Y1)

Cost	RM/year
Green + roasting	~58,000
Vendor fees	60,000
Packaging	16,000
Equipment depreciation	3,500
Insurance + licensing	1,200
Marketing	5,000
Cloud / web / phone	1,800
Founder allowance (modest, full Y)	12,000
Hire (part-time helper M9+)	5,000
Total operating cost	~162,500

Result

• Operating profit: ~RM 27,500
• Plus capex: ~RM 15,000 → net cash EoY ≈ +RM 18,000+ after founder allowance
• Action if bull materialises: Sample roaster purchase by Q1 2027; activate subscription; explore wholesale partnership.

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8. Monthly P&L Tracker — Base Scenario

Use as a template. Fill in actuals each month.

Month	Cups	Avg ticket	Cart rev	Bags	Bag rev	Other rev	Total rev	Variable cost	Fixed cost	Op P&L	Cash position
Jul ‘26	250	14	3,500	6	350	0	3,850	2,800	4,200	(3,150)	11,850
Aug ‘26	380	14.5	5,510	10	550	0	6,060	3,600	4,200	(1,740)	10,110
Sep ‘26	480	15	7,200	14	800	0	8,000	4,400	4,200	(600)	9,510
Oct ‘26	540	15	8,100	17	1,000	700	9,800	5,200	4,400	200	9,710
Nov ‘26	540	15.5	8,370	18	1,080	0	9,450	5,300	4,400	(250)	9,460
Dec ‘26	580	16	9,280	25	1,500	800	11,580	6,000	4,400	1,180	10,640
Jan ‘27	540	15.5	8,370	18	1,080	1,000	10,450	5,400	4,500	550	11,190
Feb ‘27	600	16	9,600	22	1,320	0	10,920	5,800	4,500	620	11,810
Mar ‘27	640	16	10,240	25	1,500	1,000	12,740	6,400	4,500	1,840	13,650
Y1	4,550	~15.4	~70,170	155	~9,180	~3,500	~82,850	~44,900	~39,300	(1,350)	≈ +13,650 net of capex

The Base table above lands operating-loss neutral cumulatively but cash-positive due to capital depreciation timing. The deciding factor is venue-fee discipline. A few high-cost RM 500/day venues with low turnout torpedo the model.

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9. Cash Flow Tracking — Critical Floors

Cash position trigger	Action
> RM 12K	Healthy. Continue plan; consider modest re-invest.
RM 8–12K	Watch list. No discretionary spend. Defer non-critical.
RM 6–8K	Yellow. Active cost-cut conversation. Push price ceiling.
RM 4.5–6K	Red. Crisis playbook (07-Risks & Failure Modes) activated.
< RM 4.5K	Either bridge funding or shutdown decision within 30 days.

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10. Break-Even Analysis

Per-day break-even (cart only)

Break-even cups/day = (Vendor fee + Daily fixed allocation) ÷ (Avg ticket – Variable cost per cup)
                    = (RM 250 + ~RM 50) ÷ (RM 15 – RM 3.50)
                    = RM 300 ÷ RM 11.50
                    = ~26 cups/day

At < 26 cups/day, the cart loses money on the venue fee. This is the bear scenario reality. Plan venue mix to keep day cup count > 30.

Monthly break-even (full business)

Break-even monthly revenue ≈ Fixed monthly cost ÷ contribution margin %
                          ≈ RM 4,400 ÷ 50 %
                          ≈ RM 8,800/month

Reaching RM 8,800/month happens by month 4 in the base scenario (October 2026).

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11. Capex Stretch & Trim Options (fitting RM 15K)

The honest target capex (§2) is ~RM 19,250. To fit RM 15K, choose one or more:

Trim option	Saves (RM)	Trade-off
Used espresso machine instead of newer Linea Mini	1,500–2,500	Reliability risk; service costs; can fix with a good seller
DIY cart with engineer/architect friend (vs. fabricator)	1,200–1,800	Time cost; potentially less polished; iteration risk
Manual filter grinder only Y1 (defer Mahlkönig)	0 (already in plan)	Slower flight service
Smaller initial green order (8 kg vs. 12 kg)	500	Less safety stock; risk of stockout in M2
Reduced photography (DIY first 3 months, pro shoot M4)	300–600	Lower content quality early
Smaller initial packaging run (500 cups vs. 1,000)	300–500	More frequent re-orders; lower per-unit price
Defer cart frame finish (paint instead of timber-clad)	600–1,000	Brand impact in early months
Skip insurance Y1 (NOT recommended)	800	Catastrophic risk if liability event — do not skip
Skip influencer launch budget	500	Slower brand recall ramp
Trim package recommended (saves RM 4,000+)	DIY cart + used espresso + smaller packaging + DIY photo Y1

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12. The “Founder Personal Runway” rule

Treat business capital and founder personal capital as separate. The RM 15K is the business’s. Each founder’s personal runway (rent, food, day-job income, savings) is not on the line.

If either founder relies on KNNO income to cover basic expenses in Y1, the business is structurally fragile. The model assumes:

• Both founders maintain other income (day jobs / freelance / partner support)
• Founder allowance only kicks in from month 9 (~RM 200/founder/month, base case)
• “Going full-time” decision is only made when the business covers a basic full-time founder salary (RM 3.5–5K/month) sustainably for 3 consecutive months

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13. Sensitivity Analysis (Base scenario)

What happens if a single variable changes?

Variable	-20 %	Base	+20 %
Cups/pop-up day	Op P&L: –7,000	Op P&L: –1,350	Op P&L: +6,500
Avg ticket	Op P&L: –9,000	Op P&L: –1,350	Op P&L: +6,500
Vendor fee/day	Op P&L: +5,000	Op P&L: –1,350	Op P&L: –7,500
Green coffee landed cost	Op P&L: +2,500	Op P&L: –1,350	Op P&L: –5,000
Bag sales/month	Op P&L: –1,000	Op P&L: –1,350	Op P&L: +500

Cup-count and ticket-price are the single biggest swing factors. Vendor fee is the biggest cost lever. A 20 % ticket-price increase (RM 15 → RM 18 average) flips Y1 from break-even to RM 6,500 profit.

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14. Year-2 Scenario (high-level)

If Y1 lands base or better:

Block	Y2 (Base)
Cups/pop-up day	50–65
Pop-up days/month	14–18
Workshops	1/month
Subscription customers	60–120
B2B small wholesale	2–4 cafe accounts
Y2 revenue	RM 180–280K
Y2 capex (sample roaster + cart upgrades)	RM 18–25K
Y2 op profit (target)	RM 30–55K
Founder allowance	RM 1,500–3,000/month each

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15. Year-3 Roastery Scenario (deferred decision)

Only consider if Y1+Y2 cumulative net positive ≥ RM 30K and confirmed financing path.

Block	Year 3 (Base)
Roastery + tasting bar lease	RM 4–6K/month
Build-out + equipment	RM 80–150K capex
Cart continues operating	yes
Y3 revenue	RM 350–500K
Y3 op profit	RM 60–100K (after lease)
Founder full-time?	one or both, depending

→ Decision triggers in Branch C — Own Roastery + Café (the year-3+ vision).

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16. The Honest Founder Conversation

Before signing the operating agreement, agree on these explicit numbers:

Question	Agreed value
Maximum personal capital each founder will inject in Y1	RM ______ each
Cash floor at which we have the “shutdown vs. continue” talk	RM ______
Date of first full P&L review	__________
Date of first “is this still the right business” review	__________
If we shut down, who keeps the brand IP / equipment?	__________

Warning

Without this conversation, the first time things go badly becomes the worst possible time to have it.

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17. Tools & Workflow

• Bookkeeping: Wave (free) or Xero (RM 65/month from M3); ledger updated weekly
• Receipts: Photo + tag in Notion / Google Drive / Apple Notes (whichever co-founder maintains); reconciled Sundays
• Invoicing (workshops, B2B Y2): Xero / Wave invoicing, FPX preferred
• Tax: Engage accountant Y2 onwards; sole prop Y1, Sdn Bhd Y2 if revenue > RM 200K
• Bank account: Joint or business — Maybank SME / RHB / CIMB Biz; FPX-enabled

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My Notes & Thoughts

• The RM 4K capex shortfall is the single most under-discussed number in this whole vault. Address it in week 1 of Phase 0.
• The break-even cup count is ~26 cups/day. The conservative scenario only assumes 25 cups/day. The math is uncomfortably tight. Either pricing must rise, vendor fee must drop, or volume must grow by month 4. Internalize this before launch.
• The Bull scenario looks generous, but it depends on 16 pop-up days/month — that’s nearly 4 days/week. With 2 founders also doing roast + content + ops, this is at the founder-bandwidth ceiling. Don’t model bull case without modeling staff hire by month 6.
• The “founder personal runway” rule is the single most important sentence in this vault. Internalise it.